The topic set swirling through the cable talk shows by Hillary Clinton's memoir is exactly the one the author and her husband hoped for: Will she run for president? The real issue is not whether but when? Her book, "Living History," is a spectacular trial balloon designed to determine whether the questions that might haunt a Hillary candidacy can be put to rest.

Was she upset by his infidelities? Answer: Of course. Outraged beyond words and humiliated. Why did she stay with him? Answer: Because they have a marriage and a child, and she loves him; the rest is between them. What about the myriad other scandals: Whitewater, Filegate, Troopergate and the rest? Answer: Relentless prosecutors spent millions of the taxpayers' money in unending investigations proving only that nothing improper occurred. That's the message in the book, and it's all that Barbara Walters, Katie Couric and Larry King can get out of her.

The next question is, will it fly? My guess is that if she patiently stays "on message," as she did when she ran for the Senate in New York, it will. And if it does, my second guess is that the political pundits who have their eyes on 2008 are breathing their own fumes. The real target is 2004.

Set aside for the moment whether Bush can be beaten. In 1992, when his father came off Gulf War I with a stratospheric poll rating, a number of first-string Democrats -- including Al Gore, Bill Bradley, Mario Cuomo and Dick Gephardt -- took themselves out of the running, thus clearing the way for Bill Clinton's try. Look at this year's field, and you see that no one is making that mistake again. George W. may be riding high right now, but the economy is sinking, and polls show that the voters are beginning to notice.

Keep in mind that the important thing in the first instance is the nomination, and so far no Democrat in the field has achieved traction. Who really knows John Edwards, Howard Dean or John Kerry? Who doesn't know Hillary? But she is polarizing, you say. Yes, but the other side of polarizing is that she can rally the base. Those who love her (and Bill) are the ones that count in the Democratic primaries. Those who hate her can wait their turn.

Were Hillary to declare, say sometime between now and November, she would become the instant frontrunner. Can she wait that long? Actually, she's the only one who can. The most important factor is money. If George W. Bush is the acknowledged master of fund raising, Bill Clinton is not far behind. He is the Elvis of the Democratic Party, a human vacuum cleaner when it comes to raising money.

Nowhere in American politics does one spouse owe so much to another. When Gennifer Flowers sold her story of a 12-year affair to a supermarket tabloid, Hillary went on "60 Minutes" to stand by her man. Had she slipped out the side door of the White House with a suitcase in hand any time during the Monica episode, does anyone doubt that the Clinton presidency would have gone with her?

There are too many intangibles for Hillary to wait until 2008. A Democrat might win next year, forcing her to wait eight years or challenge an incumbent president of her own party. In the meantime, she would face another Senate race in New York, perhaps the newly married, hugely popular Rudy Giuliani. No cakewalk. Also, as we all know, Bill has somewhat of an irrepressible nature; she may not be able to keep that dog on the porch for five more years. Finally, if Hillary goes now, the nationwide Clinton network is still in place. Five years from now, it will be older, with loyalties splintered by the 2004 primaries.

Timing is everything. In 1959, John F. Kennedy told former President Harry Truman he was thinking of running the next year. Truman advised that he was too young, that he should wait. It is said that Hillary sometimes talks to Eleanor Roosevelt. Were she to consult JFK, he'd tell her to go for it.

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Bode has covered American politics for NBC News, CNN, PBS and The New Republic. In August he will become the Pulliam Professor of Journalism at DePauw University in Greencastle.